Columbia fall chinook outlook remains solidSubscriber Exclusive

The WDFW has released its fall chinook outlook for 2026, with the final projections expected to be released in mid-February. Overall, the outlook is very similar to last year’s returns, which generated some very good fishing in the Buoy 10 fishery, and the Columbia River as a whole. The 2026 adult fall chinook return was predicted to be 736,200 fish, and while the final figures have yet to be completed, the preliminary adult return was about 91 percent of the forecast. Most fall chinook bright stocks returned within forecast expectations, and the jack returns for Upriver Bright stocks (URB), and the Pool Upriver Bright stocks (PUB) were similar to 2024. Bright stock fall chinook returns in 2026 should be near the 2025 levels. URB stocks return mostly to the Hanford Reach, while the PUB stocks return to the tributaries within the Columbia River pools. They are headed to systems including the Wind River, White Salmon River, Hood River, and Klickitat rivers. For the most part, the tule stocks performed as expected, although the jack returns were lower than in 2024. The Lower River Hatchery (LRH) tule fall chinook returns appear to be within the forecast range, but with fewer jacks returning than in 2024. Bonneville Pool Hatchery (BPH) tule fall chinook jack returns were below recent years, but close to the 10-year average. Overall, tule stock fall chinook returns in 2026 are expected to be less than 2025 levels. Quinten Daugherty, a fish biologist for the WDFW Region 5, reported that the largest decrease in jack numbers was from the BPH chinook, which are mostly produced by the Spring Creek Hatchery. He said that shortfall should not constrain lower river fisheries. “The lowest counts were specific to the Bonneville Pool Hatchery tule stock,” Daugherty said. “Those fish don’t affect our lower river tule concerns. It is the LCR tules that are the ones that impact our lower river constraints.” He reported that the shortfall on those stocks, which include hatchery origin chinook as well as the wild component, can partly be attributed to reduced plants out of the Kalama River Hatchery. Even with the reduced plants, these stocks are still expected to be near the returns of recent years. The BPH return has been near record levels lately, so a slight reduction would not mean much. However, those stocks do contribute to the ocean and Buoy 10 fisheries, but not in the upper river reaches. “They are a huge contributor to the ocean fishery and Buoy 10 upstream to west Puget Island,” Daugherty said. The tules get dark quickly in fresh water, and are of poor quality above Puget Island. Most anglers do not keep them. For the overall in-river fisheries, Daugherty feels pretty good. “I don’t see any LCR tule chinook issues this year,” he said. The bright chinook runs should be about the same as last year, when the fisheries performed very well. Daugherty reports that the kept catch at Buoy 10 in 2025 was the third highest since 1982. The catches were almost good enough to close the fishery. “We thought there is no way that we will be able to make it (through the whole season) because the fishing was so good,” Daugherty confessed. “We did ride the line of our expectations. We were watching day to day for expected mortalities; it was literally on the line. If we got too far above that line we would have had to close it, but it held.” Warm water conditions created a thermal block that kept the schools down at the estuary. “The fish hung out there a bunch so there was more opportunity to catch those fish,” he added. He reported that in the end, it was the constraints on the brights, instead of the tules, that the managers were most concerned with. The states are still compiling the data and crunching numbers, so Daugherty warns that there could be a surprise or two once the final numbers are complete, but he feels pretty confident that anglers will see seasons similar to last year. Those final projections are still some weeks away. Matt Halseth of Matt Halseth Guide Service fishes Buoy 10 every year through Labor Day, and he agreed that 2025 was an excellent year, and not just for chinook, but for coho, too. “We had some days around August 12 and 14 where I did get all my fish last year,” he said. “We had big tides, and I was able to get all my chinook and some coho. Some days we got mostly coho and a couple chinook. “The first part of the coho run came in strong, too.” Halseth does admit that he dislikes the mark-select fishery, which is when anglers are only allowed to retain adipose fin-clipped, hatchery-sourced chinook. He feels that catching and releasing unmarked chinook while looking for a keeper exposes more fish to possible hooking mortality. “If you are allowed one chinook it shouldn’t have to be clipped,” he said, “because you do a lot of harm catching and releasing those fish.” In 2025, the bulk of chinook fishing days in August were mark-selective, which is used to allow more open fishing days. In some past years, anglers exceeded the quotas too soon, and the fishery had to be closed down. Still, Halseth is looking forward to the Buoy 10 salmon fishing. “I’m optimistic,” he said. “I already have half my days booked for Buoy 10. I always look forward to it every year. It was a lot of fun last year.” Unless there is a surprise in the final numbers, Daugherty thinks the fishery should be solid. “Depending on the conditions, it could be a so-so year, or it could be banner,” he said.

Related Stories