Interstate 5 Bridge: Price could double $6B estimateSubscriber Exclusive

Newly discovered documents show the cost of replacing the century-old, seismically unstable Interstate 5 Bridge could be more than double the $6 billion estimate quoted by Interstate Bridge Replacement Program leaders since 2022. Portland economist and urban policy analyst Joe Cortright is the former chair of the Oregon Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors and a former executive officer of the Oregon Legislature’s Trade and Economic Development Committee. He has been following the bridge-replacement saga for the past two decades, beginning with the failed Columbia River Crossing efforts in the early 2000s. Last summer, Cortright made a public records request for documents containing updated bridge replacement costs. He shared the documents with The Columbian on Thursday afternoon. Attached to an email a Parametrix consultant sent to Interstate Bridge Replacement Program staff in August are two detailed reports showing a wide range of factors that went into updating costs for both fixed-span and movable-span bridge replacements. Instead of the often quoted $5 billion-to-$7.5 billion cost range presented by program administrators, the Parametrix cost estimates show that building a 116-foot-high, fixed-span bridge likely would cost $8 billion to $17.69 billion. Building a movable-span bridge with 178 feet of clearance likely would cost between $8.7 billion and $19 billion, the consultants said in their report. Cortright said in a phone interview Friday that when he saw the Parametrix numbers, he yelled so loudly his wife thought he was watching a tense football game. “It’s an astonishing number,” he said. “I would never have thought it was that high.” Adding to his astonishment was the fact that the new cost estimates were so far off from the expected $5 billion-to-$7.5 billion range. “They’ve had these numbers since 2022, and they’re telling us, ‘It won’t cost you any more than $7.5 billion,’” Cortright said. “Now, we know that was wildly wrong and will cost as much as $17.7 billion.” Response IBR Program representatives said Friday that they were working on responses to an influx of media requests, including questions from The Columbian. In an emailed statement, Administrator Carley Francis said the bridge-replacement program team “has been clear with our partners and the public that the cost of the (program) is going to increase, but since the cost estimating process remains underway, we still do not have a final number to share.” Francis said the documents Cortright received are drafts showing a basis of estimate, not a completed and more detailed Cost Estimate Validation Process. “(The Cost Estimate Validation Process) is a time-intensive process that involves several iterations, with each step building upon the work of the previous step,” she said in the statement. The draft version released through the public records request, she said, is “a jumping-off point for the program to develop the updated cost estimate.” “The cost estimate is not complete, and this work is ongoing,” she said. “The program is working through validation of risks and associated costs. We do not yet have a new cost estimate.” Program representatives said they are working to answer questions from the media and may release more information Friday evening. Program leaders stalling for time? In June, the IBR Program published a fact sheet stating that “a diverse range of sources will help fund the estimated $5 billion to $7.5 billion program cost.” The program cited on the fact sheet revenues that totaled, at most, $6.7 billion, including $1 billion each from the states of Oregon and Washington, $2.1 billion in committed federal funding, $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion from tolling on the current and future bridges, and another $1 billion requested from the federal government. IBR Program leaders knew in June that they didn’t yet understand the total cost of replacing the bridge. “The program will update its cost estimate in late 2025,” they noted on the fact sheet. In late August, Parametrix consultants delivered their report, showing that the cost of replacing the bridge would likely be far greater than $5 billion to $7.5 billion. During a Sept. 15 meeting with legislators from Oregon and Washington, Frank Green, assistant program administrator, told lawmakers the IBR Program was working on updated cost estimates for both fixed- and movable-span bridges and hoped to present that information during the next bistate legislative meeting in December. But then, during that December meeting, program leaders said they did not have those numbers available, causing legislators from both states to express their dismay. Oregon Rep. Thuy Tran, a Democrat representing the state’s 45th Legislative District in northeast Portland, told Francis she wanted to see updated numbers in January. “I’m not expecting you to have a finite budget plan, but you can’t punt this down the road,” Tran said. “I want a date, and I want a report. Otherwise, I would say your team is not doing its work.” This week, Cortright said it seems evident to him that program leaders were trying to stall for more time before releasing cost estimates that could effectively kill the bridge-replacement efforts. “They’ve been kicking the can down the road on telling us how much this would cost and making up fictional excuses,” Cortright said. Coast Guard The IBR Program still is waiting to hear from the U.S. Coast Guard on whether the federal agency will approve its 116-foot, fixed-span bridge.

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